Football betting has some of the best odds of any kind of gambling. The main reason is that most people don’t do their homework before placing bets on sporting events. However, professional sports bettors are looking for mistakes in the point spread.
One of the most important things to check is the weather forecast. It can dramatically change the game’s outcome, and thus, the betting line. This is especially true when the weather suddenly changes right before the game.
Indoor stadiums are becoming more common, so there is less room for bad weather to ruin a game. However, sharp sports bettors will look for every opportunity to make some money.
Sportsbooks are brilliant, but the betting lines are based on the money flow, not the game odds. When the unexpected occurs, the game plan has to change too.
When the weather forecast changes on an outdoor game, it will obsolete old lines. You need to be aware of this so that you can hedge or put a wager on the new line.
Sports betting is all about playing the averages, and weather conditions can alter the odds. You don’t have to be a meteorologist to know that cold weather is likely to favor teams from colder climates or that precipitation will make playing more challenging.
Weather Impacts on Sports
Weather is figured into bookie lines, but the weather forecast can change at any time. Weather doesn’t affect standings much but can significantly impact an individual matchup.
The more severe the weather, the greater the likelihood that the game will be randomly decided. Because of bad weather, the underdogs you thought you were betting on are no longer worth your time and effort.
Take a look at some of the underdogs when the weather is poor. Bad weather makes it more challenging to score. High wind speed is the most important aspect in determining the game’s outcome. In hurricane-force winds, try throwing or even kicking a large ball accurately. It decreases accuracy and makes getting points on the board more difficult.
Consider indoor stadiums too. These stadiums don’t have inclement weather, so some players might play better or worse. Fast players do well on astroturf, but it’s also harder on injured athletes.
The home-field advantage is already an essential handicapping consideration. However, severe weather impacts the home-field advantage and typically increases it.
Acclimation is a substantial advantage for home teams. Hot weather teams play better on sultry August days, while cold-weather teams survive snowy games better.
Bookmakers consider this when setting lines. However, if the weather changes, the lines will change too.
Wind speed is the most important weather factor, but cold weather, hot weather, and barometric pressure are also significant. Remember that the home team usually has the advantage when conditions are poor, but it’s also a random factor that favors underdogs.
Here are some ideas about how extreme weather might impact your sports wagers.
Hot weather is beneficial to acclimated teams, and even underdog teams are likely to win if they can avoid overheating.
There are also some interesting effects, depending on the sport. Each sport is different because the activity levels are different, and the balls are potentially more or less affected by heat.Hot weather makes balls more elastic, so MLB baseball games will see more home runs while golf drives travel farther.
Heat also gives baseball offenses an advantage because they can sit in the shade while the defense is in the sun. These factors mean that the over line should rationally go up on hot days.
Very heavy rain might result in postponements, but leagues try to avoid that. Typically you’ll see a fun, messy game with lots of turnovers in football. Rainy baseball games are miserable and low-scoring, with pitchers having a major edge.
Heavy rain will make many balls heavier and generally slow down play. This is a major problem for total score lines because rainy games are lower scoring.
College football can really be impacted by weather because the games are usually outdoors. The football game can really turn into a mess on rainy days.
Some teams play better when everyone is slipping around, and the field gets muddy. This is why it’s essential to know every team in the sport you bet on.
Cold weather can be miserable for some athletes, especially if they haven’t played in the cold lately. Cold weather makes athletes feel their injuries, and can cause additional injuries.
On the other hand, the defense has a disadvantage on cold days because they have more trouble reacting in slippery conditions. There are more touchdowns when the corners slip because the offense has the initiative.
On snowy days, NFL games are a mess. Corners miss more big plays, and the over wins much more often. The New England Patriots and New York teams have long used cold weather to their advantage.
Windy conditions blow balls everywhere. In football, high wind gusts make the ball’s path harder to predict, so there are fewer catches.
Windy conditions favor running over the passing game. Kickoffs aren’t affected much by strong winds, but the distance that a kicker can kick a field goal is heavily impacted by wind speed and direction.
Wind creates low-scoring games in football but might help overs in baseball. The effects depend on which way the wind is blowing.
If the wind is blowing towards home plate, drives will be shorter if the wind is blowing towards the third-base line, which favors more foul balls. Similarly, if the wind blows the ball into the outfield, you will see more home runs.
Mile High Stadium is legendary in the NFL because Denver typically has low air pressure. This means the home team is heavily favored because they are accustomed to higher altitudes.
However, air pressure can change on game day. High or low pressure could build up at the stadium, which sometimes pushes the odds towards or away from the home team.